8010 Exam Questions & Answers
Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam • PRMIA
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Sample 8010 Questions
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If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital required in respect of credit risk?
Economic capital in respect of credit risk is intended to absorb unexpected losses. Unexpected losses are the losses above and beyond expected losses and up to the level of confidence that economic capital is being calculated for. The capital required to cover unexpected losses in this case is E - U, and therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
This question does raise an important point - are expected losses a part of economic capital, or are they not? Different text books say different things, and sometimes they say both the things. I have tried to take an approach that uses what I read in the PRMIA handbook.
Which of the following statements are true:
1. Capital adequacy implies the ability of a firm to remain a going concern
2. Regulatory capital and economic capital are identical as they target the same objectives
3. The role of economic capital is to provide a buffer against expected losses
4. Conservative estimates of economic capital are based upon a confidence level of 100%
Statement I is true - capital adequacy indeed is a reference to the ability of the firm to stay a 'going concern'. (Going concern is an accounting term that means the ability of the firm to continue in business without the stress of liquidation.)
Statement II is not true because even though the stated objective of regulatory capital requirements is similar to the purposes for which economic capital is calculated, regulatory capital calculations are based upon a large number of ad-hoc estimates and parameters that are 'hard-coded' into regulation, while economic capital is generally calculated for internal purposes and uses an institution's own estimates and models. They are rarely identical.
Statement II is not true as the purpose of economic capital is to provide a buffer against unexpected losses. Expected losses are covered by the P&L (or credit reserves), and not capital.
Statement IV is incorrect as even though economic capital may be calculated at very high confidence levels, that is never 100% which would require running a 'risk-free' business, which would mean there are no profits either. The level of confidence is set at a level which is an acceptable balance between the interests of the equity providers and the debt holders.
A risk management function is best organized as:
The point that this question is trying to emphasize is the independence of the risk management function. The risk function should be segregated from the risk taking functions as to maintain independence and objectivity.
Choice 'd', Choice 'c' and Choice 'a' run contrary to this requirement of independence, and are therefore not correct. The risk function should report directly to senior levels, for example directly to the audit committee, and not be a part of the risk taking functions.
Which of the following losses can be attributed to credit risk:
1. Losses in a bond's value from a credit downgrade
2. Losses in a bond's value from an increase in bond yields
3. Losses arising from a bond issuer's default
4. Losses from an increase in corporate bond spreads
Losses due to credit risk include the loss of value from credit migration and default events (which can be considered a migration to the 'default' category). Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer. Changes in spreads or interest rates are examples of market risk events.
[Discussion: It may be argued that losses from spreads changing could be categorized as credit risk and not market risk. The distinction between credit and market risk is never really watertight.
The reason I have called it market risk in this question is because spreads can change due to two reasons: first, due to the individual issuer going down in their credit rating (whether issued or perceived, as we have witnessed in Europe sovereign debt), and second due to the spread for the overall category changing due to macro fundamentals with nothing changing for the individual issuer. For example the spread between municipal bonds and treasuries may be small during boom times and may expand during recessions - regardless of how the individual issuer has been doing. Clearly, the first case is credit risk and the second is probably market risk.
A change in overall corporate bond spreads is something I would consider akin to a rate change - which is why I have called it as not a part of credit risk. But an alternative perspective may not be incorrect either.]
There are two bonds in a portfolio, each with a market value of $50m. The probability of default of the two bonds are 0.03 and 0.08 respectively, over a one year horizon. If the probability of the two bonds defaulting simultaneously is 1.4%, what is the default correlation between the two?
Probability of the joint default of both A and B =
We know all the numbers except default correlation, and we can solve for it.
Default Correlation*SQRT(0.03*(1 - 0.03)*0.08*(1 - 0.08)) + 0.03*0.08 = 0.014.
Solving, we get default correlation = 25%
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